A note on asymmetric stochastic volatility and futures hedging

This note incorporates asymmetric responses to good and bad news within a stochastic volatility framework. It is shown that the asymmetry leads to a greater average optimal hedge ratio. Moreover, the ratio increases with increasing degree of asymmetry. On the other hand, asymmetry has no impact on the hedging performance. The result is consistent with the empirical finding of Brooks, Henry, and Persand (2002) where GARCH models are employed. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:607–612, 2005     

Risk-return measures of hedging effectiveness: The case of multiple cash and futures markets

In this article we consider the measure of hedging effectiveness proposed by Howard and D' Antonio (HD) when there are multiple cash and futures markets. It is found that the HD measure can be decomposed into two components: one solely determined by the futures market conditions, the other affected by both cash and futures markets as well as the hedger's cash portfolio. We then analyze the impacts of optimal cash portfolios on the HD measure. Although the Ederington hedging effectiveness is bounded over all cash portfolios, the conclusion does not apply to the HD measure.     

DATA REVISION AND MARKET RESPONSE: THE CASE OF UNITED STATES TRADE BALANCE ANNOUNCEMENTS†

ABSTRACT In this paper we study economic news, as reflected in the announcements of the United States trade balance by the Commerce department, to illustrate the importance of revised data versus preliminary data to economic agents. A new methodology has been developed here to study how agents in the exchange market respond to these monthly trade balance announcements and consequently, move the dollar's exchange rate. In contrast to previous studies where agent reactions to only preliminary trade figures were analyzed, this method is applied to examine market reactions to the preliminary and revised trade balance figures.     

Do country risk and financial uncertainty matter for energy commodity futures?

Using an instrumental variable quantile regression technique, this paper assesses whether country risk and financial uncertainty exert an impact on energy commodity futures prices under different commodity conditional return distributions over the period from January 1994 to July 2017. We also discuss whether the correlations change with different dimensions of country risk, that is economic, financial, and political. The results reveal that country risk and financial stress do have a significant impact on energy commodity returns of futures contracts with different maturities, but their direction, intensity, and significance differ, caused by the distinct market situations and divergent channels of country risk.     

The Year in Review: Economics at the Antitrust Division, 2020–2021

Challenging anticompetitive acquisitions of nascent competitors is a top priority of the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice. It is especially important that competition agencies remain vigilant of such acquisitions in platform markets, where indirect network effects and other market forces tend to preserve the status quo at the expense of smaller, more innovative rivals and potentially final consumers. This article discusses two such attempted acquisitions: (1) Visa’s acquisition of technology firm Plaid that threatened to disrupt Visa’s monopoly power in online debit; and (2) Sabre’s acquisition of Farelogix, which is a firm that allows airlines to connect directly to travel agencies and thereby disintermediates Sabre and other global distribution systems.

     

Real-world comparison of all-cause hospitalizations,hospitalizations due to stroke and major bleeding,and costs for non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients prescribed oral anticoagulants in a US health plan

Aims: To compare the risk of all-cause hospitalization and hospitalizations due to stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and major bleeding, as well as associated healthcare costs for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients initiating apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or warfarin.

Materials and methods: NVAF patients initiating apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or warfarin were selected from the OptumInsight Research Database from January 1, 2013–September 30, 2015. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed between apixaban and each oral anticoagulant. Cox models were used to estimate the risk of stroke/SE and major bleeding. Generalized linear and 2-part models were used to compare healthcare costs.

Results: Of the 47,634 eligible patients, 8,328 warfarin-apixaban pairs, 3,557 dabigatran-apixaban pairs, and 8,440 rivaroxaban-apixaban pairs were matched. Compared to apixaban, warfarin patients were associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause (hazard ratio [HR]?=?1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI]?=?1.21–1.40) as well as stroke/SE-related (HR?=?1.60; 95% CI?=?1.23–2.07) and major bleeding-related (HR?=?1.95; 95% CI?=?1.60–2.39) hospitalization; rivaroxaban patients were associated with a higher risk of all-cause (HR?=?1.15; 95% CI?=?1.07–1.24) and major bleeding-related hospitalization (HR?=?1.71; 95% CI?=?1.39–2.10); and dabigatran patients were associated with a higher risk of major bleeding hospitalization (HR?=?1.46, 95% CI?=?1.02–2.10). Warfarin patients had significantly higher major bleeding-related and total all-cause healthcare costs compared to apixaban patients. Rivaroxaban patients had significantly higher major bleeding-related costs compared to apixaban patients. No significant results were found for the remaining comparisons.

Limitations: No causal relationships can be concluded, and unobserved confounders may exist in this retrospective database analysis.

Conclusions: This study demonstrated a significantly higher risk of hospitalization (all-cause, stroke/SE, and major bleeding) associated with warfarin, a significantly higher risk of major bleeding hospitalization associated with dabigatran or rivaroxaban, and a significantly higher risk of all-cause hospitalization associated with rivaroxaban compared to apixaban. Lower major bleeding-related costs were observed for apixaban patients compared to warfarin and rivaroxaban patients.     

Does the Confucius Institute Network Impact Cultural Distance? A Panel Data Analysis of Cross‐Border Flows in and out of China

This paper examines the impact of cultural distance in general and the Confucius Institute Network in particular on cross‐border flows of tourists, goods and investment in and out of China. We estimate a panel gravity model of inbound and outbound flows between 2004 and 2012. We find that the presence of Confucius Institute(s) in the source country increases inbound tourism and equity flows and outbound export and FDI flows for China, while other measures of cultural distance have less of an impact.     

A note on estimating the minimum extended Gini hedge ratio

The extended Gini coefficient, Γ, is a measure of dispersion with strong theoretical merit for use in futures hedging. Yitzhaki (1982, 1983) provides conditions under which a two-parameter framework using the mean and Γ of portfolio returns yields an efficient set consistent with second-order stochastic dominance. Unlike mean-variance theory, the mean-Γ framework requires no particular return distribution or utility function to yield this conclusion. However, Γ must be computed iteratively making it less convenient to use than variance. Shalit (1995) offers a solution to the computation problem by suggesting an instrumental variables (IV) slope estimator, β^IV, as the basis for the minimum extended Gini hedge ratio where the instruments are based on the empirical distribution function (edf) of futures prices. However, the validity of employing the IV slope coefficient as the basis for the minimum extended Gini hedge ratio requires the questionable assumption that the rankings of futures prices to be the same as those for the profits of the hedged portfolio. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19:101–113, 1999